It is hard to underestimate the
shock of the Brexit vote last Thursday.
Nobody expected it… and I mean nobody. Even Farage had conceded
defeat by 11.00pm on Thursday night.
Come Friday morning, the reason pro-Brexit Tories like Johnson and Gove
look so glum was that the British people had just handed them a live hand grenade
– this was meant to be political theatre in which Vote Leave would graciously
lose, and Johnson could go back to his party and say, “well I tried. Give me the leadership and we’ll do better
next time.” Not for a moment did these
people think they were actually going to have to negotiate Britain’s withdrawal
from the EU.
Since Friday – with the exception
of the Parliamentary Labour Party; who have decided that now is the right time
to put sordid self-interest ahead of addressing the biggest national crisis
since Dunkirk – British politics has been taken up with damage limitation. Prominent Vote Leave campaigners have made
clear that they have absolutely no idea what Brexit means, still less a plan
for carrying it out. Leave voters across
the country have come forward to explain that they had only intended their vote
as a protest. Labour MP David Lammy has
called for Parliament to end the insanity by simply refusing to accept the
referendum result. LibDem leader Tim
Farron has promised to stand at the next election on a manifesto to overturn
the Brexit vote. In the media, even
arch-Eurosceptics like the Sun’s Kelvin MacKenzie are regretting voting to
leave on what has turned out to be an entirely false prospectus.
On the Brexit side of the vote,
victory has descended into outbreaks of racial abuse, as foreign nationals have
been told to pack their bags and f*** off home!
Britain has held a mirror up to its face and the picture we have seen is
ugly and dangerous.
Many of the 48.1% of people who
voted to Remain are outraged. In
Scotland, the most likely result is a new independence referendum as the only mechanism
for keeping Scotland in the EU. In the metropolitan
cities of England and Wales there have been big pro-EU demonstrations. Campaign groups have been formed with the
explicit aim of overturning the Brexit vote.
In all of this British naval
gazing, one ominous fact is being overlooked: THE EU DOES NOT WANT BRITAIN! That’s right; the EU has reached the end of
its tether. For 40 years they have had
to put up with British exceptionalism – opt-outs here, rebates there, and all
the while British politicians and journalists blaming all of the ills of their
collapsing society on Brussels.
Although European governments are
as concerned about the economic damage caused by the Brexit vote, they at least
had the wit to prepare for it. In Britain,
we can thank Bank of England officials for developing contingency measures that
an arrogant Prime Minister simply assumed would never be needed. But there are always advantages in an
economic crisis if you can position yourself correctly. France will be delighted by Britain’s
departure – and not just because of all the bad blood from Crecy to
Waterloo. In the EU as currently
constituted France is the junior partner among the big three EU economies
(Germany, Britain and France). Take out
Britain and the EU becomes a Franco-German duopoly. Germany – by far the strongest economy in Europe
has always looked enviously at the primacy of the City of London as Europe’s financial
centre. With Britain out of the way, and
the City no longer bolstered by the economic stability of the single market,
Frankfurt can finally emerge as the 21st century financial capital
of Europe.
When German Chancellor Angela
Merkel told the world yesterday that: “We can see no way to turn this around. It's not a time for wishful thinking, but of
contemplating the reality” she was not making a legal case. In fact there are 1001 legal means of
preventing withdrawal from the EU from happening. What Mrs Merkel was really saying was “Don’t
let the door hit you in the arse on the way out.” Quite simply, even if British politicians
attempt to find a means of reversing the referendum result, EU leaders are not
going to allow it – the people have spoken; you must abide by their decision.
The EU is not going
to dance to Britain’s tune any more. As
things stand, Britain is clinging by its finger nails to its access to the
single market. It is only the clause
that says it has to be Britain that triggers an Article 50 withdrawal that is
keeping us there. EU leaders will bring
all the pressure they can to bear upon the next Prime Minister to fire the
starting gun as soon as possible. As Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday, the
next Prime Minister will be given just days to trigger Article 50. Once that happens, the choice facing Britain is
stark – either sign up to all of the things that the referendum result was
opposed to – without having a seat at the decision making table – or go trade
with someone else.
So that’s it. Britain is out of the EU. Not because millions of ordinary Britons
wanted it that way, but because given the choice between a union of 27
countries plus one eternal whinger and a union of 27 countries abiding by the
same rules, the EU has chosen the latter.
Twenty-six years ago, Britain’s
biggest selling newspaper stood on the white cliffs at Dover, put two fingers
up toward Europe and shouted “Up
Yours Delors” to the then EU Commission President. Today, Jacques Delors’ children are stood on
the white cliffs at Calais returning the complement. It turns out that it isn’t foreigners who
will have to f*** off home… it’s us.
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